''The foundation of all U.S. policies with regard to Iraq is predicated on the ability of this sovereign nation to muster the forces . . . to take over security,'' said Sen. John Warner, R-Va., the No. 2 Republican on the Armed Services Committee who drafted the legislation that commissioned the study.
Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said the study challenges the Pentagon's assertion that more than half of Iraqi army and police battalions can operate in the lead so long as they have U.S. support.
''It's my observation that fewer, far fewer, are actually now in the lead,'' said Levin, D-Mich. ''That raises questions, which I hope the commission will address, as to why more Iraqi units should not be given the lead responsibility that they are capable of now.''
A senior Pentagon official said Wednesday that the U.S. military does not believe the Iraqi national police should be disbanded but acknowledges that getting the Iraqi army up to speed will take a while.
''We've always recognized that this was a long-term project,'' Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said.
The study found that the Iraqi military, in particular its Army, shows the most promise of becoming a viable, independent security force with time. It predicted that an adequate logistics system to support these ground forces is at least two years away.
''They are gaining size and strength, and will increasingly be capable of assuming greater responsibility for Iraq's security,'' the report says of military units, adding that special forces in particular are ''highly capable and extremely effective.''
Worse off is the Iraq police force. It describes them as fragile, ill-equipped and infiltrated by militia forces. And they are led by the Ministry of Interior, which is ''a ministry in name only'' that is ''widely regarded as being dysfunctional and sectarian, and suffers from ineffective leadership.''
Jones' panel recommended scrapping Baghdad's national police force and starting over.
The United States has spent $19.2 billion on developing Iraq's forces and plans to spend another $5.5 billion next year. According to Jones' study, the Iraqi military comprises more than 152,000 service members operating under the Ministry of Defense, while the Ministry of Interior oversees some 194,000 civilian security personnel, including police and border control.
The review is one of several studies that Congress commissioned in May, when it agreed to fund the war for several more months but demanded that the Bush administration and outside groups assess U.S. progress in the four-year war.