Romney leads, having spent millions of dollars on television ads and direct mail here courting influential conservatives. He has topped state surveys all summer and, with his unrivaled Iowa operation, easily won an early straw poll in August after his main three rivals McCain, Giuliani and Thompson bowed out. But Romney's support is soft, and Giuliani is mounting a serious challenge, dismissing speculation that his left-leaning positions on social issues would force him to skip the conservative-dominated contest. He appeals most to the moderate-to-liberal eastern side of Iowa; Romney and Thompson could do better in the conservative western tract. Anyone could shine in the central swing region. Giuliani recently ramped up his efforts here considerably, visiting more often, hiring field staffers, and using radio and mail to promote his views on fiscal restraint. He and Romney mixed it up here last month on immigration, a prelude of tussles that are certain this fall. McCain's once-robust Iowa campaign lost half its paid staffers in July. He is trying to rebuild even though his popularity has plummeted; disdain about his immigration stance may prove too much to overcome. Huckabee now is getting serious looks from voters after a second-place straw poll finish. A conservative and a Southern Baptist minister, Huckabee could threaten Romney's edge if he can cobble together a stronger staff. Thompson ranks well in polls.
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MICHIGAN — Tentatively Jan. 15 (61 delegates)
Michigan is poised to become a player. The legislature voted to move the state's primary from Feb. 26 to Jan. 15, and Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is expected to sign the bill. Anticipating the move, some campaigns showed Michigan early love. Giuliani has topped polls for six months and could be a force if he can attract Reagan Democrats, and blue-collar voters in populous Detroit. However, he has almost no campaign organization here. Romney is strong and his Michigan roots run deep. He officially kicked off his bid here in February to remind people he was born and raised in the Midwestern state where his father once was governor and head of Detroit's American Motors Corp. Like Romney, McCain has been active in the state for more than a year, and he has remnants of support from his 2000 win over Bush.
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NEVADA — Jan. 19 (34 delegates)
The Western state scheduled its caucuses far earlier than in previous years but still elicits only sporadic interest from Republicans who privately grumble that the contest is disorganized. Romney recently returned to campaign in the state and is starting to hire staffers. One poll shows him with a double-digit lead over Giuliani and Thompson. Romney could benefit from a residual effect of his good standing in other early states as well as from his faith, given the state has one of the top five largest Mormon populations in the nation. Giuliani has campaigned some here; Thompson is a wild card.
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SOUTH CAROLINA — Jan. 19 (47 delegates)
It's a toss-up. All have attributes that could help or hurt them in this bastion of conservatism. Thompson, a drawling Tennessean whose right-tilting Senate voting record appears a natural fit, has no discernible campaign in a state that demands shoe-leather politicking. The ultraconservative upstate around Greenville could end up his stronghold. Giuliani's tough-on-terrorism, tight-on-spending pitch and electability argument has proven popular, particularly along the moderate coastline, but he's a thrice-married, abortion-rights backer in a state party filled with Southern Baptists and Christian evangelicals. That segment also presents a problem for Romney, a Mormon, but he benefits from a strong grass-roots operation and a presence here. He spent advertising money early this year and likely will do more in the coming weeks to boost his lagging poll numbers. McCain still has a roster of key endorsements and draws strong crowds. He also is a war hero in a military-heavy state, but his immigration position here is a loser.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE — Tentatively Jan. 22 but likely earlier (24 delegates)
The advantage goes to Romney, a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts who has a vacation home here. He leads in polls and has been on the air virtually non-stop all year. Giuliani could cut into that lead; he's a nearby New Yorker whose moderate-to-liberal views could be more accepted here than elsewhere. He's bolstered his state organization and is pumping cash into direct mail as he aggressively courts fiscal conservatives with a tax-cut message. But his gun-control record could hamper his bid in this gun-rights state. New Hampshire lifted McCain to an 18-percentage point win over Bush here in 2000 and that existing support network might just offer him the best chance to resurrect his second campaign. The crowded field — and the belief that independents who helped him in 2000 will this time vote in the Democratic primary — complicates that path. Huckabee could see some success. His candid personality and skills as a retail politician appeal to Republicans in a state that has a history of choosing an underdog. But so far he has only a fledgling organization here. Thompson's impact is the unknown.
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FLORIDA _ Jan. 29 (114 delegates)
Giuliani is the best positioned, in large part because he's seemingly paid more attention to Florida than any other state. That's stoked speculation that he's trying to make delegate-rich Florida his firewall. The state has many retired New Yorkers who no doubt remember his mayoral tenure. Thompson is popular here and could benefit from his political director's longtime ties to Florida. A recent flub — in which he appeared to equate Cuban immigrants with terrorists — drew criticism and could hurt him with that important constituency. Romney has a notable level of support among the GOP elite and key supporters are allies of popular former Gov. Jeb Bush. Romney is expected to pay more attention to Florida and devote more resources to it soon, giving chase to Giuliani. McCain once had a presence here but that has diminished.
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MEGA TUESDAY _ Feb. 5 (at least 961 delegates)
Whoever makes it to Mega Tuesday will need boatloads of cash to compete on the expensive TV airwaves in the nearly two dozen states holding contests. Well-funded candidates are focusing on states where they believe they have the best chance — and can pick up the most delegates. At this point, only Giuliani and Romney are in position to do so. Romney cruised through 10 states in four days recently, including at least three slated to vote on this day — California, West Virginia and Oklahoma. He's also campaigned in several others. He'll certainly have the resources to compete, given that he's the wealthiest candidate in the field and he's also shown a willingness to pour his personal fortune into the race, already committing $9 million. Giuliani is stockpiling money and keeping a tight rein on spending to be ready for this day. He has centered much of his strategy around it, paying particular attention to California's bounty of 173 delegates. His home state, New York, votes on Mega Tuesday and could bring in 101 delegates as does neighboring New Jersey with 52 delegates and larger Democratic-leaning states such as Illinois. It offers 70 delegates.