Erickson Tribune

Charlestown

UPDATED: Thursday, February 07, 2008

Real estate reality check

Posted on Thursday, February 07, 2008
 

By Mark Abromaitis & Julia Boyle
THE ERICKSON TRIBUNE

In the face of a softening  real estate market, recent reports show that many sellers can still make significant profits today—and the prospects for 2008 are looking up.

It just depends on when you bought your house.

The realistic view
Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ vice president of research, says in Realtor Magazine, “It’s all a matter of perspective. Home sales do continue to be soft.

We’re predicting home sales to be down 7% … at the end of 2007, but that’s coming off of a five year boom. We’re forecasting a sales level near 2002, a very good year, and a year that’s far closer to normal than we’ve seen over the past four years.”

He also says that homes, as investments, are still making people money: “Price appreciation is holding up better than media reports would have us believe.”

A good return on investment
“People who have owned their homes for longer than five years are seeing significant returns on their investment,” says JoAnn Huebler, retirement counselor at Oak Crest in Parkville.

Steffany Byers, retirement counselor at Charlestown in Catonsville, adds, “If you bought your home in the last three years—during the boom—you won’t see that much of a profit. But if you bought your home ten, twenty, or forty years ago, like most of the people moving to our community, you should make a significant profit on the sale of your house.”

Reports from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) support such claims. Statistics show that median home values in Maryland have quadrupled in the past nearly 40 years. In 1970 the median purchase price in Maryland was $71,800. But today the median price is $291,400, which means these homeowners would see a whopping 306% return on their investment (see graph).

On the front line
Baltimore County Realtor Penny Noval says most homeowners would be hard pressed to find as good an investment as their home, but many don’t realize it.


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“What people need to focus on is not the past 18 to 24 months, but on what they paid 30 years ago and what they can get for it today. When they consider that logic, they’ll see that they’re still making a significant gain,” she says.

“Many people have doubled, tripled, or quadrupled their investment. What else could they have invested their money in and made that kind of profit?” she says, a question she often asks her clients.

“Plus, they had to have a roof over their head, so instead of paying rent they made a wonderful investment.”

A bright 2008
Noval says that most of her clients who are moving to Oak Crest or Charlestown— people who bought their houses well before the boom—may have made a win in 2005, but they will still make significant gains in 2008.

“Nationally, we’re forecasting existing home sales to make a comeback and rise to 6.1 or 6.2 million units [in 2008], up from 6 million units in 2006. And prices will rise about 2%,” Yun says.

“On prices, we’ll be helped by a significant drop in new home starts,” he says. “Media reports tend to portray that as a negative—further evidence of troubles. But it’s actually really good for real estate because it keeps inventories down and price pressures up—and that’s what consumers really care about. The important trend lines for consumers are pointing in the right direction.”



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