Erickson Tribune

Ann's Choice

UPDATED: Monday, October 30, 2006

How’s the Weather?

Posted on Monday, October 30, 2006
 

Weather has been a daily topic for thousands of years. Imagine cavemen sitting around saying, “Unga, can’t start fire because looks like Gods are about to punish us with rain.”

In fact, one of the first publications in this country to discuss weather patterns  began over 200 years agoin 1792 when the first Old Farmer’s Almanac was published. Picture then-president George Washington noting, “I better check the Farmer’s  Almanac. I don’t want to chop down cherry trees when it’s pouring.”

Founded by Robert B.Thomas, the Almanac remains North America’s oldest continuously published periodical. Based in Dublin, N.H., it’s published each September and is filled with everything from weather to tide tables, recipes to jokes. Hence its mission statement remains the same as it did in 1792: “Our main endeavour is to be useful, but with a pleasant degree of humour.”

Successfully Accurate
Unlike lots of periodicals that fail immediately, the Almanac was a resounding success. Its circulation tripled from 3,000 to 9,000 in its second year, even though the cost was considered steep at nine cents!

Curiously, an Almanac by definition records astronomical events, including the rising and setting of the sun, tides, and weather. But, unlike your local weatherman, what made the Almanac so special was that it was actually right more times than not. Thomas came up with the forecasts himself using a complex series of natural cycles to devise his winning formula. The formula today is said to be 80 percent accurate. More interesting, though, is just like Colonel Sanders’s secret recipe, Thomas’s secret formula remains a mystery. It remains safely tucked away  in a black tin box at theAlmanac offices.


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One Ann’s Choice resident, Will Kathrins, used to refer to it from time to time back during his days as a weather person during World War II. “I was always curious about their  predictions,” says Will. “I think their accuracy was better than 50 percent, which is pretty good. I’m not sure how they  predicted things. One rumor is that farmers used to look at Wooly Worms and count the number of rings on them.”

Will says if they were fat and furry it meant a long winter. “I think what they probably did was look at averages from similar patterns from previous years,” he says.“It’s a lot like what  weather bureaus do today.” Of course, Will is quick to point out, “I think the Almanac is very interesting, but to be honest, we don’t have much use for forecasts here at Ann’s Choice. The weather doesn’t really affect our lifestyle. Everything is inside, connected, and we have transportation options provided as well.”  Ann’s Choice is polar opposite of his responsibilities during World War II, in which his job was to check wind conditions for planes. “It was important to know what winds were doing at different levels, so we did these tests called Pibal Runs,” he says. “We’d stand on platforms, sometimes in zero degree weather, and launch balloons to note their direction and speed. At night, we used a candle and a paper lantern. It was pretty primitive. Later, though, we used a bulb and helium  balloons.”

Controversy, Oh My!
Thomas ran the Almanac for 50 years until his death in 1846 at the age of 80. When a new editor, John H. Jenks, took over he added the world Old to the title. Another Jenks addition was having each issue depict a four-seasons cover. The Almanac continued in its popularity until 1936 when a new editor, Roger Scaife made a huge blunder by dropping the popular weather forecasts from the book in 1938. The 1938 edition’s circulation dropped to just 88,000—a far cry from the 225,000 that had been calculated in 1863. Scaife quickly reinstated the forecasts  in ’39.

As revered as the Almanac’s been over the centuries, it received some negative attention during World War II. In 1942 the FBI apprehended a German spy on Long Island. Guess what was found in his coat pocket? The Almanac! The U.S. government quickly concluded that the Germans were using the Almanac for weather forecasts—meaning it was, in a sense, supply information to the enemy.

Then-editor, Robb Sagendorph, convinced the government that it would not be a violation of the “Code of Wartime Practices” if the Almanac instead featured weather indications, rather than forecasts. For more information,including today’s weather

and a bit of good humor,

check out:

www.farmersalmanac.com.

To discover, why weather

is never an issue at Ann’s

Choice, call 215-672-2900

or toll-free

1-800-576-1453.



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